Prono Derby contre Millwall du 22/02/2025 : misez sur les statistiques !

Derby vs Millwall: Championship Clash and Betting Odds for 22/02/2025

The Championship is set to deliver another thrilling encounter as Derby County prepares to host Millwall at Pride Park Stadium on February 22, 2025. This match, kicking off at 12:30 local time, promises to be a pivotal fixture for both sides as they navigate through the challenging waters of England’s second-tier football.

Recent Form and Historical Context

As we approach this crucial fixture, both Derby County and Millwall find themselves in contrasting positions in the Championship table. Derby, currently languishing in 22nd place with 29 points, are desperately fighting to avoid relegation. On the other hand, Millwall sits more comfortably in 14th position with 42 points, looking to push for a late playoff surge.

The historical head-to-head between these two sides adds an extra layer of intrigue to the upcoming match. Recent encounters have favored Millwall, with the Lions unbeaten in their last four league games against Derby (2 wins, 2 draws). Moreover, Millwall has enjoyed a remarkable run of four consecutive away victories at Pride Park since 2019, each by a narrow one-goal margin.

Betting Odds and Probability Analysis

For those looking to place a wager on this Championship fixture, let’s break down the betting odds and probabilities:

• Derby to win: Probability 35.52%, Odds 2.48
• Draw: Probability 34.97%, Odds 3.10
• Millwall to win: Probability 29.51%, Odds 2.88
• Over 1.5 goals: Probability 69.95%, Odds 1.55
• Over 2.5 goals: Probability 37.16%, Odds 2.75

Analyzing these figures, we can see that bookmakers slightly favor Derby to win, despite their lower league position. This could be attributed to home advantage, but it’s worth noting Derby’s recent poor form at Pride Park.

Key Factors to Consider

Several crucial elements could influence the outcome of this match:

• Derby’s Home Struggles: The Rams haven’t scored in their last five home league games, a concerning statistic as they face a Millwall side with a strong away record against them.
• Millwall’s Away Form: The Lions have shown resilience on the road, particularly at Pride Park, which could give them a psychological edge.
• Goal Scoring: Both teams have netted 33 goals this season, suggesting an evenly matched offensive capability.
• Defensive Records: Millwall has conceded significantly fewer goals (34) compared to Derby (46), indicating a more solid defensive unit.

The « Over 1.5 goals » market looks particularly attractive with a high probability of 69.95% and relatively low odds of 1.55. This bet could offer value considering both teams’ scoring records and the likelihood of an open, competitive match.

Expert Betting Advice

Given the analysis of recent form, historical head-to-head, and current betting odds, here’s our expert advice for this Championship clash:

1. Consider Millwall Draw No Bet: With Millwall’s strong away record against Derby and the Rams’ recent home struggles, backing Millwall with the safety net of a draw could be a smart play.
2. Over 1.5 Goals: This market offers the highest probability (69.95%) among the given options. Both teams have shown they can score, and the odds of 1.55 provide reasonable value.
3. Avoid Over 2.5 Goals: Despite attractive odds of 2.75, the lower probability (37.16%) suggests this might be a riskier bet, especially considering Derby’s recent goal-scoring drought at home.

Remember, while Derby has a slightly higher win probability, their recent form and historical performance against Millwall at home should give bettors pause. The draw at 3.10 odds could also be an intriguing option, given the evenly matched nature of these sides on paper.

Conclusion: Derby and Millwall Set for Tense Championship Encounter

As February 22, 2025, approaches, all eyes will be on Pride Park for this crucial Championship fixture. Derby County will be desperate to turn around their home form and climb out of the relegation zone, while Millwall aims to continue their impressive away record against the Rams. With the betting odds suggesting a closely contested match, football fans and punters alike are in for an exciting 90 minutes of Championship action.

Whether you’re a die-hard supporter or a seasoned bettor, this Derby vs Millwall clash promises drama, tension, and potentially lucrative betting opportunities. As always, remember to gamble responsibly and may the best team win in this high-stakes Championship battle.

References:
[1] Derby County vs Millwall: Championship stats & head-to-head – BBC
[2] Derby vs. Millwall (Feb 22, 2025) Live Score – ESPN
[3] Derby v Millwall LIVE 22/02/2025 | Soccer – Flashscore
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